Arvydas Sabonis: Retrospective Scouting Report

8 min readMar 17, 2020

Most NBA fans are familiar with the name Arvydas Sabonis. They are also very likely to know that the NBA did not get to see prime Sabonis because of the Cold War and injuries that were so bad that Portland´s team physician Dr. Robert Cook said “Arvydas could qualify for a handicapped parking spot based on the X-ray alone” when he examined the then-30-year-old rookie. Other than that, prime/injury-free Arvydas Sabonis is a very big mystery to NBA fans that did not watch European basketball in the´80s. You likely know that he was very good and maybe you have seen some clips of his overhead passes or him dunking on David Robinson but not much more. This was also true for me before I started this exercise.

I wanted to learn more about young, injury-free Sabonis. According to his Wikipedia page, he first injured his Achilles´ tendon in 1986, the year of his 22nd birthday, so I decided to watch as many games as I could possibly find of him prior to that injury and write a detailed scouting report on his game to enhance my (and your) understanding of how good he actually was (I tried to write it from the perspective of someone in 1986, which may not have been the best idea in hindsight, but oh well …). These are the games I watched:

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Offensive Role: Focal point, three-level scorer, play-finisher, post playmaker

Defensive Role: Rim Protector, drop coverage big, not switchable

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Physical Tools: He is listed at 7´3” (2.21m), and there was no visible height difference between him and 7´4” Ralph Sampson. He has very good, but not outstanding, vertical leaping ability, and while there is no official measurement for his wingspan, his arms are long enough that, combined with his jumping ability and great instincts, they make him a devastating rim protector. He is very fast for his size in a straight line, to the point where he can occasionally outrun opposing guards on the fastbreak, but he struggles moving laterally as well as backwards, especially when he is confronted with quick guards. He has not faced situations like these very often, but it is a part of his game that requires work. In 1982 (age 17), he was very skinny, but he bulked up a lot in the following years. At age 21, he is strong enough to handle every European big man in a 1v1 situation. The only opponent that did not look outmatched physically/athletically in these games was David Robinson.

Shooting: He is not one of the best shooters in the world, but his touch is still fantastic, especially for his size. He is very willing to shoot from midrange, and occasionally also from three, and these shots are borderline impossible to defend because of his size and his accordingly high release point. Sabonis is adept at using pump fakes on the perimeter as well. He will, from time to time, fake his defender out and either create a better position for a jump shot for himself or drive straight to the rim for a layup. His coordination and fluidity are fantastic for a man of his size and they allow him to be effective on such drives. Here are his shooting numbers by shot type/range throughout all twelve games:

Post Scoring: His touch also comes in handy in the post. As you can see by the shooting numbers above, he enjoys great success on fadeaways and hook shots. The fadeaway seems to be his favorite shot as he employs it multiple times each game. His size allows him to get it off against anyone, and it is especially unguardable when he goes to the middle before the shot. Defenders have some success defending it when they force Sabonis to take the fadeaway towards the baseline. The hook shot is more of a countermove for him, but it is still an efficient shot when he takes it. One issues is that he can sometimes get tunnel vision in the post when he goes into his scoring motion. More on that in the section on passing/creation.

Scoring at the Rim: Sabonis is a very effective play-finisher at the rim, and he really makes an effort to get into good scoring positions. Due to his size and vertical leaping ability, he can catch almost every entry pass and convert them into easy two points. He is not a natural roll-man in the pick-and-roll, but he can still be very effective as a lob-target when the occasion arises (e.g. cut to the rim when opponents try to front him in the post). At age 17, he struggled finishing through contact, but that element of his game has also noticeably improved since he added strength.

Passing/Creation: Incredible passer. When watching him play, you will think that he has more than two eyes, his vision is that good. In terms of pure stationary passing ability, Sabonis is in no way inferior to Nikola Jokic (Unfortunately, neither the Soviet Union nor Zalgiris Kaunas use him in a way that is similar to how the Denver Nuggets use Nikola Jokic. They only give very infrequent opportunities to Sabonis when it comes to passing out of the post.). He is fantastic at hitting cutters and three-point shooters out of the post and only makes mistakes on these passes very rarely. In addition to that, he seems to be oblivious to double teams and defensive pressure, mostly because he can see over 95% of his matchups. The one aspect that Jokic is undoubtedly better at than Sabonis is making plays off the dribble. Sabonis rarely shows flashes when it comes to passing on the move. He sometimes falls into either a scoring or passing mode (Ben Taylor mentions this concept in his article on Wilt Chamberlain), where he only looks for one of the two options, instead of using his scoring ability to create passing angles to open teammates. This mainly occurs when he receives an entry pass into the post, where he occasionally goes into a scoring motion immediately, sometimes anticipating a double team, without looking for potentially better alternatives. Because of this, he takes a few tough shots, but I would be exaggerating if I called them bad shots considering his efficiency.

Transition Offense/Defense: On offense, he only runs the fastbreak if he has a head start on all opposing players. Most of the time, however, he will trail behind the play, but on the few times when he does run the break, he is very effective due to his speed in a straight line and his ability to pass. Defensively, he is largely ineffective. As previously mentioned, he cannot move backwards quickly enough to defend guards in transition. In fact, he is usually rather slow getting back on defense.

Rebounding: Throughout the twelve game sample, Sabonis averaged 11.5 rebounds per game (3.4 offensive). He gathers a lot of rebounds due to his size and length and not because of his mobility; he also has a relatively quick second jump. If a rebounds lands in his area, he is pretty likely to get it, but when a rebound requires a lot of lateral movement, you cannot count on him to track it down. When he gets the rebound, however, it means immediate danger for the opposition. After defensive rebounds, he loves to throw full-court passes which can quickly turn into two easy points. It is important to note, though, that he has a higher mistake frequency on these outlet passes than he does on “normal” passes in a halfcourt-setting. Offensively, it can get dangerous because he can immediately put the ball back up with a layup on short rebounds and a midrange jumper on long rebounds. If the defense does not react quickly enough and allows the shot to be open, they have a huge problem.

Perimeter Defense: He is only infrequently asked to defend the perimeter or defend in space in general, and when he has to, it often does not look pretty. He cannot slide his feet or turn his hips quick enough to keep up with guards and it would probably be a better idea to ask him to hang back in pick-and-roll defense à la Brook Lopez. It is also possible that he could improve his ability in that department a little bit with more experience in these kinds of situations. One thing he does very well, however, is playing the passing lanes. His length allows him to reach quite a few passes played in close proximity to him. Teams have real problems trying to enter the ball into the post especially. A good amount of his 2.1 steals per game result from getting his hands on entry passes into the post.

Post Defense/Rim Protection: Due to his rare combination of size, athletic ability, timing (3.6 blocks per game) and intelligence, Sabonis is a devastating rim protector. Throughout the whole twelve games, opponents shot 58 out of 166 (DFG%: 34.9) on shots that Sabonis defended/contested. If we exclude the first two games that happened before his 20th birthday and before he added strength, his defensive field goal percentage is an astonishing 32.1% (43–134). He uses his tools incredibly well as a help defender and also as a primary defender in the post. There is almost no point challenging him unless you are coming at him with speed. Drazen Petrovic had some success at the rim against him, which indicates that Sabonis´ DFG% against NBA competition would definitely be less out of this world, but probably still extremely good, because no matter the opposition, scoring against someone with Sabonis´ physical tools and smarts will always be quite difficult.

Team Fit: In theory, Sabonis has great scalability because he doesn’t need the ball all the time to be effective and he adds a lot of value off the ball with his shooting ability and defense. If paired with another perimeter star, he could provide the post element if said perimeter star is a shooter and even space the floor if the perimeter star is a slasher. His shooting ability could also allow him to play next to another post player. If he is the sole star of a team, it should not be that hard to construct a good team around Sabonis if he is used in a similar way to Jokic on the Nuggets.

Other Notes: High Basketball-IQ; occasionally gets in foul trouble, but in general does not complain about foul calls; usually very stoic, only showed aggression once when one of his teammates was pushed by an opponent.

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Ceiling: Honestly? If he fulfills his potential, he could be the best player in the world. He has all the qualities to be one of the greatest players in history. He also has weaknesses, he is not perfect, but stuff like defending in space also just is not very important in the NBA of the late ´80s.

Floor: If he does not improve at all and he remains the same player he is at age 21, you are still probably looking at a Top-15 player in the league. Even in that scenario, I could see him averaging 18+ points per game on good efficiency, 10+ rebounds per game, 4 assists and 2 blocks with good rim protection. That would still easily be an All-Star calibre player.

Disclaimer: This scouting report includes no visuals because copyright laws are tough.

Arvydas Sabonis: Retrospective Scouting Report

Written by Marius

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